The Long Shadow of Social Origin

Subjective Expectations in Lower-Secondary Education and University En-rolment in Switzerland

Abstract

We examine how subjective expectations at the lower-secondary level shape social stratification in university enrolment. Using panel data and drawing on subjective expected utility theory, we show that the perceived utility of vocational and tertiary education varies by social origin. The direct effect of social origin on university enrolment is mediated by primary and secondary effects of stratification. Class-related differences in the perception of educational motivation and investment risk result in socially stratified educational pathways.